A stalled boundary stretching from New England through the Great Lakes to the Central Plains will enhance precipitation in portions of the Northeast and Great Lakes today.  While temperatures in the Northeast will be lower today compared to yesterday, dew points are still expected to be in the upper 60’s/low 70’s.  The best shot of precipitation is in the Mid Atlantic states, with isolated activity in Upstate NY and Northern New England.  Eventually a cold front will sweep the heat and humidity off the east coast but not before scattered thunderstorm activity on Wednesday and Thursday.

Observations/Short Range Forecast

Its still a mild morning in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic

2 m temperatures 4 am Northeast (image weatherbell)

2 m temperatures 4 am Northeast (image weatherbell)

2 m temperatures 4 am Mid Atlantic (image weatherbell)

2 m temperatures 4 am Mid Atlantic (image weatherbell)

There is some shower activity in PA and NY

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 558 am

NWS Northeast Regional Radar 558 am

People in Southern MA, Northern RI, and Northeastern CT are dealing with patchy fog this morning that will begin to lift around 8 am.   These showers will continue to work east as low pressure (circled) rides along the stalled boundary.

WPC Surface Analysis 2 am

WPC Surface Analysis 2 am

The best severe chances in the Northeast are in Western PA and NY state today.  Severe hail and damaging winds will be isolated threats.  In general the entire region save for Downeast Maine will see some risk of a thunderstorm.

SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook

In terms of temperatures the warmest will be in the Tri-State Area near New York City.  Here temperatures will be in the upper 80’s/low 90’s.  In the rain cooled regions of Western PA/NY temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70’s.  Northern New England will also be cooler and less humid.  The Hudson River Valley up through the Adirondack’s should be in the mid 80’s. Here is 4 PM

06z NAM hires 2 m temps  4 PM (image weatherbell)

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 4 PM (image weatherbell)

Here is the WPC predicted rainfall today.  Although not impressive the whole region is saturated so it only takes only thunderstorms to move slowly over an area and there will be big problems.

WPC Day 1 Predicted Rainfall

WPC Day 1 Predicted Rainfall

Overnight the lows will drop into the 50’s in Maine but will be in the mid to upper 60’s and lower 70s elsewhere.  The cold front in the Midwest will begin to progress east.  This sets the stage for a more interesting weather day on Wednesday.  First temperatures at 3 am tonight

06z NAM Hires 2 m temps 3 am Wed (image weatherbell)

06z NAM Hires 2 m temps 3 am Wed (image weatherbell)

A surface low pressure located in Ontario will drive the cold front through the Great Lakes while also beginning to lift a warm front through New England.

WPC Surface Forecast Wed 8 am

WPC Surface Forecast Wed 8 am

Here is the afternoon temperatures

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Wed (image weatherbell)

06z NAM hires 2 m temps 2 PM Wed (image weatherbell)

Here is the severe weather outlook for tomorrow.  Although NY and PA have the greatest chance of severe it is much more likely all throughout the northeast tomorrow.

SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC Day 2 Thunderstorm Outlook

Here is the WPC day 2 precipitation outlook

WPC Day 2 Precipitation Outlook

WPC Day 2 Precipitation Outlook

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-Zack Green

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